Scoring and the Shot Clock

A recent study by University of Minnesota physics professor Brian Skinner suggesting the it is better for N.B.A. players to shoot early in the shot clock. Skinner mentions that shots taken within first eight seconds of the shot clock generate 1.05 points each shot whereas those taken in the final two seconds of the clock produce 0.85 points. The expected point value of each shot declines very slightly from the beginning of the possession until the final eight seconds when shots become progressively worse. 911 shots as the clock winds down provide the lowest expected value.

According to Skinner’s statistics, N.B.A. players take more shots later in the possession The author believe that players erroneously pass up a moderately successful shot early in the clock because they believe a better one will manifest itself. Skinner feels that players may hold the ball because they underestimate the chance for a turnover and because teams design their offenses to execute shots later in the possession.

Looking at the study at face value and stating that players should shoot early is misleading. Offensive basketball does not consistent of twenty-four seconds under uniform conditions. Possessions are divided into five components that are significantly different in terms of offensive and defensive tactics. A team gains possession in the own end and proceeds down the court in transition with a numerical superiority. As all players come down the court, the defenders match up and the halfcourt play begins. When the shot clock counts down, teams run plays designed to produce a quick shot.

The primary break which follows a turnover or long rebound usually results in a very high-percentage shot. The secondary break after a quick rebound and outlet also frequently leads to an open shot. The early offense, before the defence has completely set up, can also create a good shot, as shown by Skinner’s numbers. N.B.A. teams take about forty percent of their shots in these first ten seconds of the shot clock.

Teams shoot about fifteen percent of their shots in the last four seconds of the shot clock, showing that offenses do not rely on the shot late in the possession. Many successful teams shot early in the shot clock (not because of a seven seconds or left doctrine but because that’s when it is easiest to score). Good teams have defenses that force turnovers or outside shots that enable frequent high percentage transition chances.

Against good teams, it becomes very hard to take good shots. The best teams will pressure the ball consistently and force the opponent to take low percentage shots. Teams that succeed in the playoffs possess the ability to get high percentage shots against top defenses. Teams that play at a higher pace win inconsistently; pace factor does not always correlate with high effective field goal percentage because teams may have severe difficulty scoring when it is not in transition. Teams that win the points in the paint battles win sixty percent of games; the bigger the margin, the higher the winning percentage.

Teams that maximize their transition chances and limit the ability of the opponents to attack before the defense is set will have an advantage. In the age of thorough video analysis, teams will take away the first and second options from the opponent so if a team can score before the defense can match-up and force the offense to adapt, they are better off. Some poor teams show an enormous drop in effective field goal percentage after the offense starts because they are not skilled enough to score when someone is guarding them. Perhaps they cannot beat their man off the dribble, turn the ball over or lack the ability to run a system that makes everyone on the team a threat to score. Creative teams that evolve as the game progresses and share the ball among all team members display field goal percentage curves that are more consistent.

Coaches can use the information in the article in the following ways:

• Get back in defensive transition so the primary and secondary break become a halfcourt possession as soon as possible.
• Pressure the ball to produce turnovers, reduce ball penetration and force outside shots.
• Find the best scoring threat in transition and make a good pass to get them the ball.
• Choose not to settle; if the defense is not entirely ready, cutters can flash to the ball and create a high percentage scoring chance.
• Make all five players part of the halfcourt offense so the defense must spread the court and leave room for lanes to the basket and open shots.
• Practice an efficiency offense that quickly provides quality shots.
• Eschew predictability on offense and defense; adapt throughout the game and make the opponent adjust.

As York coach Tom Oliver mentioned his reply to his study, “The Boston Celtics played some of the best basketball we’ve seen in a long time by sharing the basketball and making the extra pass.” Making the extra pass to someone who is in the paint or in an open shooting position is the complete opposite of running a low shot clock offense that treats the ball like a hot potato. The best teams are those who get the ball to the best scoring option during critical possessions as consistently as they do early in the games.

Taking the early shot because it’s better than what might materialize later is like saying never pass into the high post because the expected point value of a shot in that area is below average relative to other locations on the court. However, making that pass could lead to a low post entry, a pass to a cutter for a high percentage shot or an open shot in the corner, areas with high expected values. Relative to Skinner’s study, holding the ball is worthwhile if it means pulling the ball out in transition instead of committing an offensive foul or dribbling inside with the goal of finding an open shooter. Holding the ball without any ball or player movement will not improve the expected point value and illustrates the study’s argument.

Oliveri discussed how the Phoenix Suns never won a championship. The 2004-10 Phoenix teams always succeeded to a point, usually until the conference semi-finals or conference finals stage. What worked against the average team (:07 Seconds or Less), never worked against top teams. Over the course of a season, when it is equally likely to play a good team or a bad team, shooting early works. Once a good team set up their defense and began to protect the paint, the Suns became less effective. During the regular season, Phoenix could hide their below average defensive efficiency because their offensive efficiency early in the shot clock was so good.

Arguing the point using outliers as examples can shed some light but examining what happens most consistently. In short, the teams that win are the teams that understand what is a good shot for them and take that shot as soon as they see it. These days do not care who takes the short. More importantly, the teams that win are those who force their opponents to take bad shots. As the shot clock winds down, these teams take all of the good shots away. Good teams also avoid turnovers, eliminating an opponent scoring chance and producing a transition chance of their own, and get to the line, raising their effective field goal percentages.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Part II

Remakes sometimes prove weak derivatives of the original film but The Girl with The Dragon Tattoo deserves to stand on equal footing as the Swedish original. The strengths of the original film - an enigmatic title character, dark themes and a cold setting which is not often portrayed on film - remain intact as do the weaknesses, such as the stilted plot and anti-climatic conclusion. The first chapter of the Millennium Trilogy is more suited to film, where it can be edited and altered to retain the audience’s interest, than a 631 page tome.

Many films follow Akira Kurosawa’s model of introducing the protagonist via a quick cameo that is unrelated to the main plot but The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo spends over an hour profiling Mikael Blomkvist and Lisbeth Salander before bringing them together. When they finally appear on-screen, the chemistry is very compelling and drives the remainder of the film. A point forgotten in many films is that in order for the audience to care what happens to the characters, they must become emotionally invested in their welfare.

An unsolved murder is a universal story but the main characters add energy to make this film stand out.Daniel Craig and Rooney Mara appear in every scene, individually or together, and their performance motivates the audience to see the film through until the end. Mara’s Salander stands out from archetypical film characters because of her resilience and determination. Christopher Plummer is an important supporting actor, bringing miserable millionaire Henrik Vanger to life. The viewers want these people to do well but could care less about Stieg Larsson’s protracted commentary about Swedish society.

More than anything, director David Fincher has shown that he is the master of post-modern films filled with disaffected characters and despicable plot twists. Some directors would gloss over some of the violence in the film whereas others would devote undue attention the scenes hoping to shock but Fincher does neither.  The brutality is as much a part of the story as it is daily life so it is profiled from afar, like the scene of rape that Lisbeth Salander films with a hidden camera. Fincher transports the audience to Hedeby Island in northern Sweden, using trailing shots to draw the view into the icy scenery. Fincher mixes the technology which permeates the storyline into the film without overwhelming the main point.

The score provided by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross is chilling and suits a mystery than unravels slowly. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is a mood more than anything else, from the opening sequence until the excessive denouement (which is required to tie up all the unnecessary loose ends that the author included). As governments become more and more dysfunctional, driven by self-interest rather than the common good, and the average person continues to be indifferent to others, the film will be a significant chronicle of modern life and what it has become. Hopefully, the sequels do not let down the audience as was the case for the Swedish trilogy. ***½

Consistency

Consistency - over the course of a game, a season, a career - is one of the toughest obstacles faced by competitive athletes and teams. Over the course of an event or a meet, individuals may experience highs and lows; one poor race can dash one’s dreams of glory. In order to be consistent, different combination of players must maintain the same level of intensity and quality; diverse people must perform as one. Since it is so challenging to achieve, consistency is often associated with greatness.

Dwane Casey keeps a 1,300 pound rock in the Toronto Raptors locker room, which is plastered with the motto “pound the rock.” The coach means to convey that the task of turning around a moribund franchise is so immense that it cannot be accomplished with a single effort but only consistent effort by all team members over the course of several years. The team has made progress but the rock is remains intact. Eventually, the rock will crack but it will not be easy.

Several Raptors players are young and trying to discover their roles in the Association. They struggle to perform consistently from game to game, even quarter to quarter. Consequently, the team’s effort fluctuates and the results vary widely. It is a fact of life in sport that outcomes are not totally controllable; a team can play hard and still lose. Nevertheless, processes are always controllable; teams can determine how they will train, practice and play, irrespective of the opponent.

Jamaal Magloire and Anthony Carter were signed in order to train the young players how to work out. Not every player understands the meaning of “dedicated practice” and what it looks like. Idle practice will not develop mastery, only a focused effort. Some Raptors are spending time on the shooting court but they may not always be taking game shots. They may be in the weight room but they may not be simulating game situations. They may be trying their best once they catch the ball but they may not have done as much before the ball arrived.

DeMar DeRozan, Ed Davis and James Johnson need constants within their games that they can rely on, for example go to moves that provide a steady source of points or effort in transition that makes the rest of the game easier. DeRozan has posted some good halves - and has taken liberty in celebrating those strong performances - but he has not generated the points in the paint which are crucial to Toronto’s success. Davis has received the ball near the basketball but he seems to execute the most awkward footwork possible. Mastery of basic post moves will help him reach the scoring levels expected of him. Currently, nobody fears Johnson on the offensive end but if he endeavours to move without the ball he may take advantage of a defender who lowers their guard.

The team tends to win one and lose two (or three) not only because of the wearisome travel schedule but because their toughness waxes and wanes. Some games the Raptors will grab a dozen 50/50 rebounds, other times Andrea Bargnani and Amir Johnson will float around the paint without boxing anyone out. A well-executed fourth quarter against Minnesota is followed by a number of games with scarce points in the paint and embarrassing ball control. The consequence - whether the shot falls - is not entirely controllable but the choice - what type of shot to attempt - is within the team’s power. Great teams consistently pressure the opponent by taking high percentage shots.

Casey has criticized the team for falling victim to “N.B.A. Cool”, an attitude of self-satisfaction after meeting some success but before finishing the task. It may seem difficult to ignore a massive rock in the locker room but it takes discipline to see it every day and comprehend why it is there. Other teams to have used the “Pound the Rock” slogan have been the San Antonio Spurs of the past decade and the 2002-03 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, veteran teams nearing their goals of winning a championship. They had come a long way so the rock seemed smaller in their minds; nevertheless, they had to consistently pound it until they succeeded.

Some of the easiest areas of basketball to be consistent are moving without the ball and making the defender work all game. The Raptors set up a two-man game with Jose Calderon and Bargnani and three stationary players on the weak side. Now that Bargnani is injured nobody knows that to do; even the “Triangle Offense” required ceaseless movement within the fifteen foot triangles. The ball needs to move until a high-percentage shot is created, either in the paint or an opponent look on the perimeter. When the ball stops at the beginning of the possession, time is wasted and the team usually settles as the short clock expires.

Closing the paint can be accomplished although it necessitates communication and rotation. The Raptors are unpredictable in this area, following a 30% defensive field goal percentage game with a 55% contest. Toronto could better pressure the ball, although they are limited in this regard given their current personnel. Consistent basket protection and ball pressure should lead to more one-and-done possessions and transition scores. At this stage of their careers, all of the Raptors need to physically box out when the shot goes up and while there has been improvement, there are miscues on some possessions. After playing defense for twenty-four seconds, giving up an offensive rebound or committing a loose ball foul is incredibly demoralizing.

It is a challenging realization for inexperienced teams to understand that although they may have some skills and abilities, they are not consistent enough to succeed at the next level. It is demanding to develop consistent toughness, which combines effort with tenacity, and players cannot do so on their own. Fortunately for Toronto, there seems to be a positive team culture at the moment and Casey and his staff are more than eager to provide the support the players need.

As more and more Raptors buy in, more players will lead by example and demonstrate that toughness. Tough teams are the ones who make the opponent play every possession at peak intensity. They compete for every loose ball as if that possession will decide the game. When the team needs a rebound after a miss, they fight until they get it. Relaxing for a play, a shift, a quarter or a game is a sign that the team is not consistently tough, an opportunity for the opponent to gain an advantage that puts the remaining hard fought effort at risk.

Sedimentary rocks are formed by intense pressure over long periods of time. Elite basketball teams are formed by pressure - on both the offensive and defensive ends of the court and during practices and training sessions - over time. The Raptors have demonstrated moderate improvements in process so far. They must become more consistent into order to see progress in their outcomes as time passes.

The Artist

An ode to silent films and the Golden Age of the Silver Screen, The Artist could easily become camp yet manages to rise above the novelty of black and white scenes, dialogue replaced by caption cards and a 4:3 aspect ratio. The film succeeds because it preserves the magic of Hollywood, not the techniques of 1920s filmmaking. Ultimately, the purpose of films is to entertain; silent films became obsolete when viewers wanted to see “talkies” and black and white films were replaced when colour was demanded. The Artist aspires to entertain the audience with a simple and charming story and elaborate effects are not necessary.

The plot is simple enough but serves a purpose to tell a deeper story about love and the world’s desire for entertainment. George Valentin is a leading silent film star and Peppy Miller is one of his adoring fans. Inspired by George, Peppy enters the movie industry and makes it big as George falls from grace. Although their careers are on opposite trajectories, the two remained infatuated with each other.

The screenplay is very funny; perhaps it is because the cards are used so sparingly that the writers can avoid the temptation to fill the silence with meaningless chatter. Since so few words are used, the actors must communicate their emotions through facial expressions and body language. As they fall out of fashion in The Artist, silent films are criticized because they force actors to emote instead of act. Stars Jean Dujardin and Bérénice Bejo, supported by an ensemble cast featuring John Goodman and James Cromwell, show how skilled actors can draw in the audience and get their point across without many words.

Director Michel Hazanavicius should be commended for his creativity although he needed to produce a successful track record before studios would jump on board. With or without the silent film gimmicks, Hazanavicius puts the viewer in the protagonist’s perspective: showcasing his arrogance and pride early in the film and his anger and desperation later. Valentin begins the film so incapable of interacting with others that he relates better to his dog and hallucinations that those around him. After he hits rock bottom, he finally learns to work with others and how to help himself.

Sometimes, all a film needs is a classic story, a fell compelling characters and a happy ending. Whether The Artist stands the test of time is unknown although it has met the expectations of fans and critics alike who were looking for a brief diversion. ****

Carnage

Carnage, based on the play God of Carnage by Yasmina Reza, is a brief but charming comedic film. Much like Reza’s other Tony award winning play ‘Art’, it features a group of people who come together for a seemingly innocuous reason only to slowly annoy, provoke and antagonize each other. Instead of three friends coming together to view an all-white painting, Carnage describes how two set of parents meet after their sons get into a fight at a nearby playground.

Penelope and Michael Longstreet - played by Jodie Foster and John C. Reilly - host Nancy and Alan Cowan - played by Kate Winslet and Christoph Waltz - hoping to find a resolution to the violent outburst. The attempts at reconciliation are primarily driven by Penelope who seems to feel that it is only natural that the others share her views. As the film continues, the characters needle each other and each couple discovers that their relationships are not as solid as they had thought.

Aside from the opening and closing credits, the film takes places entirely within the Longstreets’ apartment. Director Roman Polanski begins and ends the film with an establishing shot of Brooklyn Bridge Park, showing the altercation between the two boys transpires and how things are patched up by the end of the film. In the apartment, long takes focus on the relationships between the four main characters and how they grow alternatively closer and further apart throughout the film.

The ensemble cast brings to life characters are typical of modern life. Penelope claims to be an activist but ultimately does nothing to improve the plight of those who are less fortunate although she frequently criticizes others for doing the same. Alan cannot put aside his telephone and give his attention to what is in front of him. Nancy is hoping for a family structure where she can take a more important role. Michael purports to be the affable everyman and although he is as genuine as any other character, he ultimately wants to satisfy his own needs. The upwardly mobile couples are entirely out of touch with the world that unfolds outside their window.

Carnage is a short film so there is not sufficient time to develop the characters fully beyond detailed sketches. Nevertheless, the audience laughed throughout and genuinely cared about the outcome of the film. It may be better suited to a play -- the work does not equal the sum of its parts but proves to be an enjoyable diversion. ***

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows

The problems with Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows began with the poster prominently displayed outside the theatre, featuring the protagonist grasping a revolver. This is a misunderstanding that envelops the entire film, substituting explosions, MMA and cross-dressing for the thoughtful detective work of the novels. The film looks fantastic and brings Europe at the turn of the twentieth century to live but neglects to do likewise for the titular character.

Unfortunately, the eccentricities of Sherlock Holmes are exaggerated far too much by Robert Downey and he is made to be a comedic figure. While Arthur Conan Doyle created a character with a bohemian streak who was familiar with the fringes of society, A Game of Shadows portrays him as someone entirely out of touch with reality. A methodical man becomes so introverted that those around him barely tolerate him.

Guy Ritchie crafts a mediocre film that is only entertaining in spurts by treating the film like a summer blockbuster. Bullet time is used excessively, jarring the viewer and halting the action for the sake of showing how much special effects have progressed since The Matrix. Stop-motion sequences narrated by Holmes preview unnecessary and ultimately meaningless fight scenes; another one from Moriarty’s perspective portrays the arch-villain throwing a Bolo punch during the climax above Reichenbach falls.

The screenplay includes many nods to the original short stories, especially The Final Problem, but it appears Ritchie neglected to read any of them. The first film grossed more than a half-billion dollars so the formula works but it is implemented in order to dumb down mysteries which require thinking and pander to the lowest common denominator. Moments when viewers are compelled to think about what “The Napolean of Crime” will do next are interrupted by loud explosions which serve no purpose.

A bright spot is the ensemble cast, featuring Jared Harris, Noomi Rapace and Stephen Fry - when they are left to expand upon their characters. Harris is very credible as the diabolical yet genius villain although he is frequently hamstrung by the questionable decisions of the writers and director.

Moriarty is supposed to be elusive, so it would be logic that he never appears on-screen with Holmes until their battle atop the falls. It seems illogical how he would stop his pursuit of profit in order to taunt and torture Holmes but he does so frequently. The literary Holmes would find his inability to stop the professor of mathematics most frustrating but this does not prevent Ritchie from subjecting the audience to Harris’ singing. However, by this point, the audience has realized that it is unreasonable to expect anything logical. *

Margin Call

More than one audience member felt that the reason Margin Call seemed so depressing was that the events depict on-screen actually occurred, a small group of traders leaving the economies of the world to deal with their reckless actions. Like the real word, the film a large financial firm is populated by a myriad of people some who are very well-paid and do very little and others who are very effective but wield little influence.

Margin Call recounts a thirty-six hours period when a risk management analyst realizes the precarious position that the heavily-leveraged firm has created for itself and tries to send the message up the food change. More and more people become aware of the scale and scope of the situation and eventually the decision is made to unload the toxic assets to whoever will buy them.

Although cast as the villains in the 2008 market collapse, not all Wall Street traders are bad. Some may be incompetent, others reckless and a few are compensated excessively for their minute contributions to the firm. Realizing that the firm (a thinly veiled Lehman Brothers) must divest themselves of the mortgage backed securities before the underlying asset falls in value, Sam Rogers debates the ethics of selling a worthless product to professional colleagues. Traders must sell as much as possible - eliminating their own jobs in the process - in order to clear the firm’s books. Some characters stand on principles, momentarily, but many choose to accept the money and continue playing the game.

The premise that the financial markets are nothing more than a prestigious casino game refutes the widely-held belief that Wall Street insiders caused extreme harm to the world economy. The firms created more and more dubious products, grouping BBB mortgages together and fabricated securities which were rated AAA while ignoring clear signs of looming trouble. However, the crisis was made worse because so many individuals, companies and governments invested in the scheme, happy to earn returns that were basically money for nothing.

The film emphasizes how the firms did not understand what they were doing. Only Peter Sullivan - played by Zachary Quinto looking very much like Mr. Spock - finally realizes the problem; it took an engineer who the others refer to as a “rocket scientist” to but two and two together. Executives ask Sullivan to explain himself in “plain English” and leave the numbers out. Data is constantly displayed on screens, flashing by so quickly that it cannot be processed properly by those who are manipulated it. Sometimes, the screens, mounted six at a time on a trader’s desk is reflected on a surface and distorted, much like the real value of the securities were distorted as the false gains accumulated.

Suspense is constructed because the audience wants catastrophe to be averted even though they know that the outcome is set in concrete. People will lose their jobs for no particular reason - some did their jobs, sounded the alarm and were ignored because the news was difficult to here, some did nothing to merit being hired in the first place – and reputations will be tarnished. The muted soundtrack, mixing periods of silence with ominous violin chords conveys a sense of an approaching storm.

The characters react to the events differently. C.E.O. John Tuld shrugs it off as a decline in a ceaseless market cycle. Head of Securities Jared Cohen is indifferent to the predicament of those below him in the organization and most concerned with preserving his place in the hierarchy. Rogers, the Head of Sales, seems to genuinely feel for his staff but is ultimately more affected by the death of his dog than those who have been laid off. Neither clients nor the overall performance of the company are valued but rather maintaining the status quo (especially the compensation packages). Viewers found it depressing because it was based on a true story that actually transpired; it is also a story that could easily repeat itself in the near future. ***